According to recent research conducted under the direction of the University of Oxford, North-West Europe’s hottest days are warming at a rate that is twice that of typical summer days. With regard to England, Wales, and Northern France, the differences in tendencies are the most obvious. Also worryingly, current climate models overestimate the rate at which the hottest days are warming in comparison to observations, although successfully predicting the rate of warming for average days.
Leading researcher Dr. Matthew Patterson from the Department of Physics at the University of Oxford says the findings suggest that extreme heat events, like the UK’s record-breaking heatwave last summer, are set to become more frequent.
These results demonstrate that climate change is already having an impact on the UK and its bordering nations, and that last year’s heatwave was not an anomaly, according to Dr. Patterson. For the implications of increasing temperatures, policymakers urgently need to modify their infrastructure and health systems.
Dr. Patterson evaluated data from the past 60 years (1960–2021) tracking the maximum daily temperature, provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, for the study, which was published today in Geographical Research Letters.
Although the highest temperature ever recorded fluctuated from year to year, the overall trend made it evident that North-West Europe’s hottest days had warmed at a rate twice as fast as typical summer days.
The average summer day in England and Wales grew by about 0.26 °C every ten years, whereas the hottest day increased by about 0.58 °C every ten years. However, other parts of the Northern Hemisphere did not experience this accelerated warming of the hottest days to the same degree.
It is yet unclear what is causing the hottest days to warm up more quickly than typical summer days. Dr. Patterson hypothesizes that this may be because hot air carried north from over Spain is frequently associated with the warmest summer days in North-West Europe.
Spain is warming more quickly than North-West Europe, which means that air brought in from this region is getting more and more extreme in comparison to the normal air in that region.
For instance, a plume of hot air transported north from Spain and the Sahara was responsible for the hottest days of 2022. However, this needs to be confirmed by additional study.
Extreme heat has significant negative impacts on many different aspects of society, including energy and transport infrastructure, and agriculture. It also exacerbates conditions including respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, putting a strain on health services.
The current UK Government has been criticised by the Climate Change Committee (CCC) for failing to act quickly enough to adapt for the impacts of global heating. These new findings add even more urgency for policy makers to adapt infrastructure and systems vulnerable to extreme heat.
Source: https://www.ox.ac.uk/
