Big glacial mass losses
An multinational team led by assistant professor David Rounce of civil and environmental engineering produced fresh forecasts of glacier mass loss over the course of the century under various emission scenarios.
In order to enhance talks about adaptation and mitigation, such as those at the most recent United Nations Conference of Parties, the forecasts were combined into global temperature change scenarios (COP 27).
According to his research, depending on the effectiveness of current climate change mitigation measures, the planet could lose as much as 41% of its entire glacier mass this century—or as little as 26%.
Rounce and his team discovered, specifically, that over 40% of the glacial mass will be gone within the century and over 80% of glaciers by number may probably vanish in a future scenario with sustained investment in fossil fuels.
Even under the most optimistic low-emission scenario, where the rise in the global mean temperature is kept to a maximum of +1.5° C relative to pre-industrial levels, over 25% of the glacial mass and over 50% of the total number of glaciers are expected to vanish.
Temperature fluctuations effects
By glacial standards, the bulk of these vanished glaciers are minor (less than one Km2), yet their disappearance can have a significant effect on the region’s hydrology, tourism, glacier dangers, and cultural values.
He expects that his findings will encourage climate policy makers to cut temperature change objectives below the 2.7° C threshold that promises from COP-26 are anticipated to reach.
His work improves the framework for regional glacier modeling. Temperature increases of more than 2° C will have a disproportionately negative impact on smaller glacial regions, such as Central Europe, Western Canada, and the United States. The glaciers in these areas virtually completely vanish after a 3° C warming.
Rounce pointed out that it takes time for glaciers to adapt to climatic changes. He portrays the glaciers as rivers that flow exceedingly slowly.
Even a total cessation of emissions would take between 30 and 100 years to be reflected in glacier mass loss rates since cutting emissions now will not eliminate previously produced greenhouse gases or immediately stop the inertia they contribute to climate change.
Rounce’s earlier research
Rounce’s earlier research has demonstrated that, depending on the thickness of the debris layer, glacial melt rates can be positively or negatively impacted across a wide area.
In his most recent research, he discovered that while accounting for these processes had only a little effect on forecasts for the world’s glaciers, studying individual glaciers revealed significant variations in mass loss.
A record quantity of data, including specific mass change observations for each glacier, is used to calibrate the model, giving a more thorough and in-depth view of glacial mass change.
Thus, the application of cutting-edge calibration techniques and the enormous ensembles of various emissions scenarios required the employment of supercomputers.
Source: Carnegie Mellon University
