The social, economic, and ecological consequences of droughts are continuously rising as they get more intense. By 2035, the economic effects of these extreme weather occurrences are predicted to rise by at least 35% over present levels, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) Global Drought Outlook. This estimate shows the phenomenon’s increasing severity as well as its increasing potential to upend entire productive systems and weaken a territory’s resilience.
According to the paper, since 1900, the amount of land affected by droughts has doubled, and in recent decades, the frequency and severity of these events have increased for about 40% of the earth. According to the authors, this change is mostly caused by altered global climate patterns, since rising temperatures increase evaporation, decrease soil moisture, and jeopardize aquifer replenishment. Droughts may become up to seven times more common and severe than they would be in the absence of climate change in the event of a +4°C global warming scenario.
The OECD cautions that this tendency does not differentiate between emerging and industrialized nations. High-income nations are equally vulnerable to significant losses, even though the social repercussions—such as famine, forced migration, or declining livelihoods—are more acute in poorer regions. For instance, the 2021 drought in the United States damaged the agricultural industry alone to the tune of around $1.1 billion. The summer of 2022 caused €40 billion in losses across Europe. Furthermore, the strain on water systems always results in stressors that impact everything from river transportation to electricity generation.
The condition of aquifers is one of the most concerning findings in the report: 62% of those under observation exhibit consistent drops in their levels, a sign of overexploitation that jeopardizes water security over the medium run. Degradation of the soil, a decline in plant productivity, and a breakdown of vital ecosystem functions like water filtration and climate regulation exacerbate this.
Depletion rates could double by the end of the century in 62% of the world’s monitored aquifers, which exhibit a persistent fall in their levels.
The study emphasizes that there are still a lot of unknowns surrounding the extent and distribution of drought, even if climate models clearly show a trend towards a higher risk of it. In many parts of the world, particularly those with intense water resource management, projections often indicate diminishing river flows and water levels. Aquifer depletion rates are predicted to double by 2100 if present trends continue. Similarly, most models forecast steep drops in flows in the Mediterranean basin and southern Africa, while some predict a minor increase in flows in places like Canada and northern Europe.
Significant uncertainty is introduced by the differences in models, emission scenarios, and local settings; also, there are differences in the definitions and indicators used to evaluate drought. This intricacy underscores the necessity of fortifying monitoring mechanisms, enhancing the caliber of accessible data, and establishing a closer connection between climate research and water management strategies.
In light of this, the OECD suggests an action plan that integrates public policies and emphasizes prevention. According to the organization, effective water management, soil restoration, reorienting agricultural methods, and city layout are crucial components of creating true drought resistance. According to the paper, adaptation investments not only lessen the immediate effects of drought occurrences but also provide long-term financial gains; for every dollar spent on prevention, the benefits can increase by three or even ten times in certain situations.
Source : OCED
